Votre adresse de livraison: RAY KURZWEIL. After all, it took me forty years to be able to see what was right in front of me, and I still cannot say that I am entirely comfortable with all of its consequences.The key idea underlying the impending Singularity is that the pace of change of our human-created technology is accelerating and its powers are expanding at an exponential pace. This is one reason we call this transformation the Singularity.I have personally found it difficult, although not impossible, to look beyond this event horizon, even after having thought about its implications for several decades. Most of the intelligence of our civilization will ultimately be nonbiological. This is why I describe this way of looking at the future as the “intuitive linear” view.But a serious assessment of the history of technology reveals that technological change is exponential. The massively parallel and self-organizing nature of the human brain is an ideal architecture for recognizing patterns that are based on subtle, invariant properties. The Power of Ideas I do not think there is any thrill that can go through the human heart like that felt by the inventor as he sees some creation of the brain unfolding to success. For example, the computer industry in the 1940s consisted of a handful of now historically important projects. Gradually, I’ve become aware of a transforming event looming in the first half of the twenty-first century. There are indications of possible subtle exceptions (or circumventions) to this limit, which, if they exist, the vast intelligence of our civilization at this future time will be able to exploit.This, then, is the Singularity.
Most technology forecasts and forecasters ignore altogether this historical exponential view of technological progress.
That, at least, will be the perspective of unenhanced biological humanity.The Singularity will represent the culmination of the merger of our biological thinking and existence with our technology, resulting in a world that is still human but that transcends our biological roots. Although people readily agree with this observation when it is simply stated, relatively few observers truly appreciate its profound implications. I’ll discuss the concept of order in the next chapter; the emphasis in this section is on the concept of patterns. When scientists become a million times more intelligent and operate a million times faster, an hour would result in a century of progress (in today’s terms).The Singularity involves the following principles, which I will document, develop, analyze, and contemplate throughout the rest of this book:• The rate of paradigm shift (technical innovation) is accelerating, right now doubling every decade.28• The power (price-performance, speed, capacity, and bandwidth) of information technologies is growing exponentially at an even faster pace, now doubling about every year.29 This principle applies to a wide range of measures, including the amount of human knowledge.• For information technologies, there is a second level of exponential growth: that is, exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth (the exponent). There will be no distinction, post-singularity, between human and machine nor between physical and virtual reality.“If you wonder what will remain unequivocally human in such a world, it’s simply this quality — ours is the species that inherently seeks to extend its physical and mental reach beyond current limitations.”© 2020 Kurzweil Network | accelerating intelligence — It represents the nearly vertical phase of exponential growth that occurs when the rate is so extreme that technology appears to be expanding at infinite speed. By doubling their number every few days, the last seven doublings were sufficient to extend the pads’ coverage to the entire lake.
I had the notion that inventions could change the world.
Veuillez réessayer Livraison accélérée gratuite sur des millions d’articles, et bien plus Les membres Amazon Prime profitent de la livraison accélérée gratuite sur des millions d’articles, d’un accès à des milliers de films et séries sur Prime Video, et de nombreux autres avantages. Ce livre n'est plus actuel. The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology But the architecture of the human brain is nonetheless profoundly limited. The acceleration of paradigm shift (the rate at which we change fundamental technical approaches) as well as the exponential growth of the capacity of information technology are both beginning to reach the “knee of the curve,” which is the stage at which an exponential trend becomes noticeable. A story can be regarded as a meaningful pattern of information, so we can interpret Muriel Rukeyser’s aphorism from this perspective.
This is the destiny of the universe. La plupart des prédictions qu'il fait se sont avérées fausses. When he returns a few weeks later, he’s shocked to discover that the entire lake has become covered with the pads, and his fish have perished.
Shortly after this stage, the trend quickly becomes explosive.