Malacañang is leaving it to local government units to decide whether to lift the liquor ban while Luzon is under enhanced community quarantine. The extension of the Luzon-wide Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) raises the question on how effective the ECQ has been to contain the spread of COVID-19. Local Health Officers have three options for initiating the quarantine or isolation of an individual. On the first day of the implementation of the enhanced community quarantine or ECQ, President Duterte declared the entire Philippines under a state of calamity for a period of six months "unless earlier lifted or extended as circumstances may warrant," in order for the LGUs to act swiftly on emergency circumstances through getting funds fast. …
If it is, how should it be implemented after April 30 without unnecessarily paralyzing local economies over a long period of time?It is important to tackle this question at this time because LGUs rely upon national directives for policy and decision-making. Crafting of guidelines for an extended ECQ requires foresight, one that is informed by scientific data on estimates of the effectiveness of pandemic control strategies. The extension of the Luzon-wide Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) raises the question on how effective the ECQ has been to contain the spread of COVID-19.
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This suggestion is made based on our analysis on the trajectory of spread and the severity of its impacts across LGUs, which varies depending on the onset of local transmission, population density, and age-group distribution.To aid decision-making on this matter, our team continued to explore epidemiological approaches in disease mapping at the provincial level using population density as proxy measure of “outbreak spread potential” (Figure 3). Report your symptoms through the ArriveCAN app or call 1-833-641-0343 every day until the end of your 14-day quarantine. What took 3 days for the total number of cases to double now takes about 6 days to happen (Figure 1)Another metric that can be used to test effectiveness of the ECQ is the case fatality rate. Check-in within 48 hours of arrival through the ArriveCAN app or call 1-833-641-0343 .
By getting the ratio of the number of cases against the estimated outbreak threshold, we can determine which level of community quarantine to implement (Table 1). For instance, a province whose number of cases is at least equal to the estimated outbreak threshold should implement ECQ measures.